NASA said Wednesday that new data collected overnight cut the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1.5%. The chances of impact had been 3.1%. Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032 as of Feb. 19, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. Image courtesy NASA
NASA said that new data cut the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1.5%.
In a blog post on Wednesday, NASA said it expects the impact probability “to continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made over the coming days and weeks” after it had placed the possibility as high as 3.1% on Tuesday. Advertisement
“For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032,” NASA said.
On Feb. 15, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory put the impact probability at 1.6% for the asteroid that measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter.
The asteroid’s trajectory gives it a slight chance of impacting the Earth in late 2032.
NASA said it is continuing to watch the asteroid to collect enough data “so that our planetary defense experts can determine future risk to the Earth.”
“Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032,” NASA said in a FAQ about the asteroid. “As more observations are collected, and that data is added to the orbit calculations, it is likely this probability will drop to zero. The impact probability for this asteroid will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to track it.” Advertisement
If an asteroid the size of 2024 YR4 actually hit the Earth NASA said, “The damage caused by an impacting asteroid depends greatly on the exact size and composition of the asteroid. The exact size of 2024 YR4 is still uncertain, but an airburst is a likely scenario for its size range. If the asteroid were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, models indicate that airbursting objects of this size would be unlikely to cause significant tsunami, either from the middle of the ocean or even nearer shore.”
If it hit a populated area, NASA said, “An asteroid about 300 feet in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.”
NASA said the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon is currently at 0.8%.
